The hottest supply and demand is tight, and the pe

2022-08-18
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Tight supply and demand, limited periodic adjustment of Tianjiao

at the end of May, there were more negative themes in domestic and foreign financial markets, leading to a comprehensive and deep decline in the commodity market, approaching the critical point of bull bear conversion. In this major bad background, even if the supply-demand relationship is seriously unbalanced,

Tianjiao market, it is naturally difficult to be alone, and the short-term market enters the deep callback trend

the author believes that although the external macro factors and financial speculative factors are relatively empty, resulting in the deep and phased weak adjustment of the rubber market, due to the tight spot supply of rubber sources at home and abroad, vigorous consumption and rigid growth, and the difficult balance between supply and demand, the space for the phased adjustment of Tianjiao will be limited. When the commodity market as a whole encounters support and stabilizes, the Tianjiao market is expected to rebound first

heavy rainfall pushed to strengthen the supervision of announced enterprises during and after the event. Thailand's Tianjiao export was late.

Thailand's production area was still trapped in the rainy climate and disastrous 1. The yield ratio of carbon steel was 0 Due to the climate, the rubber cutting operation continued to stop, and Thai exporters delayed the implementation of export orders. Orders in April were once postponed to may, and orders in May were postponed to June. It is still difficult for exporters to determine when to ship in June. The extremely tight supply of natural rubber has significantly increased the purchase willingness of domestic natural rubber importers. The supply shortage effect in the overseas market strengthened the rising trend of rubber price, but at the same time, it aggravated the reluctance of natural rubber producers and exporters to sell

the earthquake disaster on May 27 occurred in Java island, Indonesia, which is not the main production area of natural rubber. Therefore, in fact, the production of natural rubber in Indonesia has not been materially and seriously hindered, and the export of natural rubber has not been postponed. On May 29, the global rubber price rose sharply, which was more due to the market's concern about the spot supply in Indonesia if not. Nevertheless, the tight supply of natural rubber in Thailand will aggravate the tight supply pressure of natural rubber in Indonesia

Hainan latex diverts a large amount of dry rubber supply

at home, it has entered the peak season of rubber cutting at present, some rubber trees in Hainan production area continue to stop cutting, some rubber trees are in the maintenance state, and the remaining rubber trees enter the rubber cutting state, but the rubber cutting amount is limited. At present, the total market volume has reached about 800-900 tons per day, but 2/3 of them are used to produce latex and only 1/3 are used to produce dry rubber. The reason is that the profit from the direct sale of latex by Nongken is relatively rich, which is higher than the profit from the sale of dry rubber

in the natural rubber terminal consumption structure, the consumption of natural rubber by various tires accounts for about 50% of the total consumption, and the remaining 50% will be used to manufacture rubber products such as rubber shoes and hoses. Compared with the fact that some small and medium-sized tire enterprises are unable to bear the high price of natural rubber, end consumers have a strong ability to bear the rise in the price of rubber products, and the rise in the price of latex has prompted Nongken to adjust the structure of finished products, producing less dry rubber and more latex

the price difference of glue varieties shows strong speculative demand

International glue market. The price of No. 3 cigarette glue and the price of No. 20 standard glue reflect the supply and demand of natural rubber in Thailand and Indonesia respectively. And speculative demand background. At present, the price of No. 3 cigarette glue has reached 260 - the price difference of these machines is also very large, 265 cents/kg, while the price of No. 20 standard glue is cents/kg. The price difference between the two kinds of glue has expanded to more than 30 cents/kg, indicating that speculative demand has been significantly stronger than consumer demand. The price of No. 3 glue has a large false rise component, and there are two possibilities for the future price difference to change: first, due to speculative capital profit taking, the price of No. 3 glue fell, resulting in the moderate convergence of the price difference of No. 3 glue; The second is that speculative funds continue to be long, leading to the continued upward price of No. 3 rubber, and driving the linkage between the price of No. 20 standard rubber to strengthen, leading to the continued expansion of the price difference of rubber. If the tight supply fails to ease, the second possibility is greater

due to the tight supply of natural rubber at home and abroad, the rigid growth of consumption demand for natural rubber, and the imbalance between supply and demand, the promotion of natural rubber supply and the inhibition of natural rubber consumption have not appeared. Therefore, the space for the fall of natural rubber prices at home and abroad will be limited. Technically, Shanghai glue has a strong supporting effect in the yuan region and Tokyo glue in the yen/kg

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