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"Make-up" is expected to lead the next round of sharp decline in the domestic rubber market is unlikely

"it is unlikely that the international rubber price will fall sharply, and the next round of Tianjiao market is expected to be dominated by domestic make-up". At the Shanghai medium term rubber club held a few days ago, institutions from the rubber industry, private equity funds and other institutions have expressed the above views

three factors dominate the make-up price

Fu Fenghai of Shanghai chaos Investment Co., Ltd. said that China must import a large amount of natural rubber, the consumption situation is good, and the inventory of 130000 tons is not very large. These three factors are the incentives for Shanghai rubber to start the next round of make-up price. "The key is that domestic rubber is now the cheapest rubber in the world," Fu Fenghai said

he pointed out that China's rubber import pattern will not change. As of December last year, China had imported 530000 tons of composite rubber, an increase of 83% year-on-year; Customs Statistics 1. The purpose of the experiment: the metal anchor rod and anchor cable are solid in tension, but because of their functions, they are compared with the measurement of yield strength, tensile strength, elastic modulus and elongation The imported natural rubber was 1.61 million tons, an increase of 14% year-on-year; The domestic rubber volume is only about 550000 tons, and it is roughly estimated that China's dependence on foreign trade is 80%; If we add the folk estimate of 30000 tons of Vietnamese border trade glue per month and 360000 tons per year, the dependence on foreign trade will rise to 82%. Second, China has strong demand. The automobile output increased at a high speed of nearly 30%, the tire output maintained a growth rate of 15%, and the rubber import volume stabilized at a growth rate of more than 10%

Yue Qi, President of China latex, analyzed that this round of Tokyo rubber rebound has not seen a decent correction, and the position has always remained at about 50000 hands (unilateral), roughly equivalent to the position held in the previous period. There is no large-scale position expansion, which means that there is little difference between long and short positions in the rising process. "Mitsubishi's positions in the Tokyo market are about 5000 and Mitsui's about 6000. The bulls are relatively concentrated and the bears are scattered. The position structure is still very normal, and the possibility of a substantial adjustment of Tokyo rubber is not yet great." Yue Qi said, "the trend of the domestic rubber Market is weak, and replenishment is easy to occur."

130000 tons of inventory is not large

it is worth noting that at present, the domestic exchanges and the two major agricultural reclamation stocks are huge, with a total of about 130000 tons, which will cause great psychological pressure on the domestic rubber market. But Fu Fenghai believes that "this inventory is not really large". He said that according to a conservative estimate, the annual apparent consumption is 2.69 million tons (53+161+55), the monthly consumption is 220000 tons, and the 130000 tons inventory is about equivalent to the consumption of 2.4 weeks

at the same time, 70% of domestic imported rubber is mainly processed by raw materials, and only 20% of general trade rubber can directly enter the domestic circulation market; Based on the import of 1.6 million tons, this part is about 320000 tons per year, 27000 tons per month; The import volume of composite rubber in 2006 was 520000 tons, of which about 50% - 60% were imported from general trade, about 10000 tons in the whole year, with an average of more than 22000 tons per month; In addition, China's general trade import volume is about 50000 tons per month, and the domestic inventory is only equivalent to the trade volume of the product used in the fields of auto parts, electronic appliances and communications, home appliances and furniture supplies, railways, military aviation, medical treatment, etc. in 2.6 months. "The ratio of rubber inventory to consumption is actually very low," Fu Fenghai said

according to the analysis, Vietnam has entered the cut-off period in mid and late January and started cutting in mid and late April. At that time, due to the reduction of production, the amount of rubber in Vietnam's border trade will inevitably decline significantly, and a considerable part of rubber consumption may be transferred to domestic standard rubber. "If only 20000 tons per month is calculated, the monthly general trade volume will increase by 40000 tons, and the domestic inventory is only equivalent to the general trade volume in less than two months," Fu Fenghai said

domestic standard glue is close to the lowest price in the decision-making process of this "upstream and downstream" business transformation mode from research and development to production. Yue Qi pointed out that the price of domestic standard glue is close to the lowest price in the world, and there is very limited room for decline. However, due to the high rubber prices in Tokyo, he is still cautious about the rise of the domestic rubber market. According to Fu Fenghai's calculation, the price of domestic standard glue has also been close to the lowest price in the world, and the import cost has been higher than the domestic futures and spot prices. He said, "domestic futures and spot goods can fall by up to 1000 yuan per ton. If they fall further, domestic standard rubber should be crowned with the title of 'the world's cheapest rubber' in addition to the honorary title of 'the world's most popular rubber for enterprises'."

In contrast, Hu Kaixi, general manager of Shanghai medium term industrial products department, is relatively cautious. He believes that the upward pressure of this round of rubber market still exists, mainly from the correction of Tokyo market. Therefore, cautiously optimistic about this bull market is the main tone

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